Investigation of the impacts of climate change and rising temperature on food poisoning cases in Malaysia.

This study is an attempt to investigate climate-induced increases in morbidity rates of food poisoning cases. Monthly food poisoning cases, average monthly meteorological data, and population data from 2004 to 2014 were obtained from the Malaysian Ministry of Health, Malaysian Meteorological Department, and Department of Statistics Malaysia, respectively. Poisson generalised linear models were developed to assess the association between climatic parameters and the number of reported food poisoning cases. The findings revealed that the food poisoning incidence in Malaysia during the 11 years study period was 561 cases per 100 000 population for the whole country. Among the cases, females and the ethnic Malays most frequently experienced food poisoning with incidence rates of 313 cases per 100,000 and 438 cases per 100,000 population over the period of 11 years, respectively. Most of the cases occurred within the active age of 13 to 35 years old. Temperature gave a significant impact on the incidence of food poisoning cases in Selangor (95% CI: 1.033-1.479; p = 0.020), Melaka (95% CI: 1.046-2.080; p = 0.027), Kelantan (95% CI: 1.129-1.958; p = 0.005), and Sabah (95% CI: 1.127-2.690; p = 0.012) while rainfall was a protective factor in Terengganu (95% CI: 0.996-0.999; p = 0.034) at lag 0 month. For a 1.0°C increase in temperature, the excess risk of food poisoning in each state can increase up to 74.1%, whereas for every 50 mm increase in rainfall, the risk of getting food poisoning decreased by almost 10%. The study concludes that climate does affect the distribution of food poisoning cases in Selangor, Melaka, Kelantan, Sabah, and Terengganu. Food poisoning cases in other states are not directly associated with temperature but related to monthly trends and seasonality.

Multi-model projections of precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX-Southeast Asia simulations.

This study examines the projected precipitation extremes for the end of 21st century (2081-2100) over Southeast Asia (SEA) using the output of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment - Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). Eight ensemble members, representing a subset of archived CORDEX-SEA simulations at 25 km spatial resolution, were examined for emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The study utilised four different indicators of rainfall extreme, i.e. the annual/seasonal rainfall total (PRCPTOT), consecutive dry days (CDD), frequency of extremely heavy rainfall (R50mm) and annual/seasonal maximum of daily rainfall (RX1day). In general, changes in extreme indices are more pronounced and covering wider area under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. The decrease in annual PRCPTOT is projected over most of SEA region, except for Myanmar and Northern Thailand, with magnitude as much as 20% (30%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The most significant and robust changes were noted in CDD, which is projected to increase by as much as 30% under RCP4.5 and 60% under RCP8.5, particularly over Maritime Continent (MC). The projected decrease in PRCPTOT over MC is significant and robust during June to August (JJA) and September to November (SON). During March to May (MAM) under RCP8.5, significant and robust PRCPTOT decreases are also projected over Indochina. The CDD changes during JJA and SON over MC are even higher, more robust and significant compared to the annual changes. At the same time, a wetting tendency is also projected over Indochina. The R50mm and RX1day are projected to increase, during all seasons with significant and robust signal of RX1day during JJA and SON.